Tyler Hicks has been dropped by J,  Rex Goudie will record his third album independently, Jordin Sparks’ first album initially struggled, has anybody heard Brian Melo’s first album?

Winning at American or Canadian Idol isn’t reality. What comes next is.

American Idol remains television’s most watched show but ratings have fallen. It will be around for a while unless something drastic happens, so this writing is merely a speculation. What if the sales of the compact disc continue to slide downhill? What if the idea that the CD is dead takes hold and becomes another reality? What if Idol winners continue to struggle.Will J still sign American Idol winners? Will Sony/BMG still want the latest Canadian Idol?

  With winners, runners up, themes, second albums, even William Hung, there have been about 30 Idol-related albums. Not everyone can be a hit though the track record of the Idol franchise is impressive.  Kelly Clarkson is a Grammy Award winner, Carrie Underwood is a country music star, Daughtry went to number one on the national bestseller chart. But what about Hicks, Goudie, Melo or Sparks. What about Ruben Studdard, Ryan Malcolm, Melissa O’Neill or Eva Avila? Right now, I’m listening to Cowboys And Cadillacs by Jaydee Bixby. Bixby came second in the fifth season of Canadian Idol. It’s a nicely acceptable country record, more efficient than unique. Once the record’s time is up, what will become of Bixby?

Getting dropped is yet another kind of reality. Tyler Hicks has been cut loose from J Records. He was the first American Idol winner not to sell a million records or to have any hits. Rex Goudie, runner up to Melissa O’Neill in Canadian Idol’s third season, will release his third album independently. Although his first album did well, his second didn’t. Sony/BMG let him go. Jordin Sparks saw her first album sell 119,000 in its first week of release and debut at 10 on the American bestseller chart. This is good by most standards but American Idol winners have done much better.

The winner of Canadian Idol’s fifth season, Brian Melo, had his album, Livin’ It, released in November. He and it have all but disappeared.

American Idol might have become too predictable or its viewers are tired. Viewers like the spectator sport of handicapping a winner, but they can’t keep up with all the records and probably don’t care. An American Idol winner automatically was signed to J (or Sony/BMG in the case of Canadian Idol) and  had his/her record usually sail into the top 10. If the record sales, not just of Idol winners but of everybody, are falling, will J continue to sign the winner? And if not, what else has American Idol to offer? In 2007, record sales were down 11%. In that regard, Hicks, Goudie, Sparks or Melo are victims of a trend.

The series and their viewers move on, leaving last year’s model wondering what to do next now that they are out of sight, out of mind. This is where career development comes in. If such a thing as career development still exists, the winner’s second album already has been planned and the fanbase has been built. If not, the winner is in real trouble.

The winner of American/Canadian Idol usually says something like their victory is a dream come true. Then, after a year, they wake up.